the Technologist

Once upon a time, everything was controlled by giant faceless monolithic organisations. That was the Age of Whales. Huge, lumbering entities, surviving through sheer mass and power.

But then came computers, home computers, connectivity, broadband and suddenly a new equilibrium becomes possible. And not just possible but actual. And not just actual but thriving.

This is the Age of Minnows.

Technology has made it possible for individuals to control the means of production, communication and distribution into a new type of mass market.

In the Age of Whales, the mass market was a cookie-cutter sea of identical clones. Choice was limited or non-existent. The manufacturer TOLD you what you wanted. You had to conform or do without.
But in the Age of Minnows, the mass market is not ONE market - it is a collective of highly specialised, differentiated, fragmented groups. Partitioned into much smaller enclaves of tastes and interests. These mini-markets are a nightmare for the Whale producers - their production pipelines were not designed to cope with a multiplicity of mutually exclusive preferences. Their pipelines are designed to deliver tightly focussed designs in massively replicated volumes.

And here is where the new story begins.

The only force agile enough to cater to so many different markets are the individuals in the markets themselves. Instead of looking to a large corporate organisation to supply what we want, we now are beginning to have the option to choose from suppliers who are often just single individuals. Think blogs, fansites, ebay and indie bands on iTunes. Compare those with newspapers, printed magazines, supermarkets and music CDs.

Individual choice has gone from being a pipe dream to being a tangible economic actuality.

This is the Age of Minnows. Where the weigh of the collective minnows threatens to overshadow the bulk of the individual whales.

Now, more than ever, small is beautiful

Golf is a social sport.
Except for professional golfers, playing golf is as much about the socialising as it is about hitting the ball. Golf games are like meetings on the move, the long gaps between the actual task of hitting the ball are part of the nature of the game.

Massively Multiplayer Online (MMO) persistent worlds share a great similarity with golf. Certainly there are tasks and goal-driven activities to occupy and distract. But these are not the heart of MMO Chatworlds.

It is important to draw a distinction, at this point, between MMO Chatworlds, MMO Role Playing Games (MMORPGs) and Short (non-persistent) Multiplayer(MP) games. MMORPGs and Short MP games are much more task-centric and goal-driven. Some MMORPGs have very strong social communities but these are a side-effect of the main dynamic of the game.

It is the Chatworlds, where socialising is central and activities secondary, that represent a major leap in the design of digital worlds. Chatworlds are the "New Golf" - socialising environments interspersed with some goal-driven activities.

So what's the big deal about 3D chatworlds then?
Does the world NEED another golf?

The significance of 3D Chatworlds is that it presents casual users with an accessible and attractive way of participating in interactive digital entertainment. Before Chatworlds, you either had to be a hardcore gamer or messageboard junkie to take part in an online community.

With 3D Chatworlds, you get all the bells and whistles of high-tech visuals but without the nagging demands of a task-centric game. In this respect, even the SimsOnline is more game than chatworld.

Although there are others, my favorite Chatworld is THERE (http://www.there.com) - it is revolutionary for being the most persuasive implementation of an alternate universe for your alternate self. It features slick, smooth 3D animated characters AND integrates Voice-over-IP (VoIP). So as you wander and meet other avatars in this world, you/it speaks in your own voice. This is initially a slightly eerie experience, but very quickly, the interface becomes utterly natural and you become one with your avatar.

In the THERE world, you are free to use the space purely for socialising. There are games to play and things to buy, but all that is strictly optional. You meet people, make friends and basically just "hang out". If you were to look for another real-world parallel, it is like going down to the pub. It is as much about meeting your mates as it is about drinking (I hope!).

So, herald the coming of the New Golf.
The coming of digital worlds designed for the many, driven by the most basic need of human nature - the need to belong.

Computers.
Aren't they supposed to be labour saving devices?
Aren't they supposed to help solve problems?

Why do we often come across problems that a computer CAN solve but doesn't and then find software to solve problems that we don't have?

As both a consumer and supplier of software, I have noticed this and have devised an explanation which I call "The Value Gap".

The Value Gap is the gap between what consumers are willing to pay to have a problem solved and what creators want to (and have to) charge to solve a problem.

This Gap exists because the "Value" to the consumer is not directly connected to the "Cost" to the supplier. As long as the Consumer-Value is lower than the Supplier-Cost, solutions to those problems will not be forthcoming.

Understanding that this "Gap" is why some problems are not solved is helpful. It gives a basis for determining if solving a particular problem will be (under current conditions) undertaken.

Furthermore, it also helps suppliers of solutions to see where there MIGHT be a future market if:
1) The cost of production falls.
2) The cost of distribution falls.
3) The cost of marketing falls.
4) The value of solving the problem rises.
5) The population of potential consumers increases.
6) The conversion rate of potential to actual consumers increases.
These are the "Value Components" of the Gap.

Whenever a Gap closes so that a supplier can profit from solving a problem, a new market will emerge.

As technologies become widespread, available and affordable, and as energy costs rise, each of the 6 value components are capable of radical change and as they change, they can make it profitable for suppliers to solve old problems.

So always look out for technological, social or economic changes that alter the balance - seeing them as soon as possible is the best way to capitalise on new markets.

yinch'05

Through the magic of web-streamed video, I have watched this Shuttle mission from take-off through to landing.

The engineering marvel and mudane realities of space flight was laid bare for all the web to see. From the smoky launch, down to the minutae of the spacewalk, every aspect of the mission was seeable and seen by captivated web watchers everywhere.

Congratulations to NASA on the completion of this mission and also to the BBC for providing access to the excellent video feeds.

We get used to stuff that just isn't good enough.

After a while, we accept that the way things are is the way things will always be.

Looking back, people will ask "Didn't anyone notice?"

Well, someone noticed.
I noticed.

I notice that computers are horrible to use.
I notice that more people cannot use computers than can.
I notice that videogames are not accessible to a mass audience.
I notice that interactivity is young and the golden age of computers has yet to come.
I notice that technology fails to solve fundamental usage problems.
I notice that technology fails to solve fundamental human problems.

I noticed.

yinch'05